Thursday, September 07, 2006

The 32 year old model


Blogs cant take subcripts and superscripts? Guess I got no choice but to post it this way.

Did some testing and here are the results I got, assuming we have these inputs;
E(time 0) = 4, σ(E) = 0.3, r = 0.0435, T = 2 and D = 15

This gives V(time 0) = 17.74835 and σ(V) = 0.067841
With these two values we also got ourselves,

Probability of default = 0.45%
Market value of debt = 13.74835
Present value of promised payment on the debt = 13.75016
Expected loss from default = 0.01%
Expected recovery rate in the event of default = 97.07%

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